Fire Umbra GuardianTier 3
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 53 | 21-28-4 | 43.4% | 43.9% | 44.8% | -1.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 53.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 58.8% | +3.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 42.2% | -3.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 31.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 25.3% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 64.4% | +7.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +2.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 36.9% | -7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 33.9% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.7% | +18.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.0% | +16.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.1% | +1.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -2.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.8% | +13.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.2% | -18.1 |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siphoning Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |